5 cities where prices are set to fall

New here? Join the newsletter (it's free).

Weekly housing trends view—data for week ending Feb. 15, 2025 link

• The median list price dropped by 0.5% year over year, marking the 38th consecutive week of either flat or declining home prices. This is the smallest decline in 2025 so far, partly due to fewer price reductions.

• New listings increased by 5% compared to the same week last year, continuing a six-week streak of growth. Despite high mortgage rates, sellers are entering the market at a faster pace than in early 2024.

• Active inventory rose by 27.6% year over year, with for-sale homes steadily increasing for 67 straight weeks. Buyers now have significantly more options as the market moves into the spring season.

5 cities where home prices are set to fall

• Provo, UT, faces the highest risk of price declines, with a 70% or greater probability according to CoreLogic. Home list prices in Provo fell 1.4% from last year but are still 38% higher than in January 2020.

• Tucson, Albuquerque, Phoenix, and West Palm Beach are also at high risk, all located in the Sun Belt. These cities saw explosive price growth post-pandemic, but now face corrections as demand cools and inventory rises.

• National home prices rose 4.5% in 2024 and are projected to grow another 4.1% through 2025. However, mortgage rates hovering near 7% are expected to keep sales sluggish, with existing home sales projected to reach only 4.07 million—far below the 2013-2019 average of 5.28 million.

• link

Salt Lake City is the top major metro for families link

• Salt Lake City ranked No. 1 among the 50 largest metros, with a family median income of $112,342 and relatively low child care costs. Minneapolis and Cincinnati followed, with Minneapolis having the highest rate of children living in owner-occupied homes at 78.7%.

• Louisville ranked 10th despite one of the lowest family incomes, while San Jose, ranked 8th, had the highest income but one of the lowest homeownership rates for families. This shows that high income does not always translate to high homeownership.

• Miami, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles ranked among the worst cities for families, scoring under 30 out of 100. These cities had lower homeownership rates for families (48%-58%) and higher poverty rates for children (16%-18%).

Multifamily starts hit lowest level since 2011 link

• U.S. multifamily starts plunged to a 13-year low in Q4 2024, with only 37,000 units breaking ground. This is about half the volume compared to Q4 2023.

• Annual multifamily starts totaled just over 213,000 units in 2024, marking the lowest yearly count since early 2012. This follows a peak of over 100,000 starts per quarter from 2021 to mid-2023.

• Among the top 50 apartment markets, Dallas, New York, Chicago, Newark, and Houston saw the highest starts. However, New York, Newark, and Houston experienced the biggest declines.

Retail investment boom expected to continue in 2025

• Retail investment hit $21.2 billion in the second half of 2024, marking a 36% jump from the first half and pushing total annual investment to $36.8 billion. JLL predicts even stronger growth in 2025 due to low supply and strong investor demand.

• The average retail deal size reached a 12-year high at $20.2 million, driven by an 8.3% increase from 2023 and a surge in transactions over $100 million. Notable deals included 717 Fifth Avenue, the LINQ Promenade, and major mall acquisitions.

• Investors are targeting grocery-anchored centers, luxury spaces, and urban retail in key corridors. Retail properties are being acquired below replacement cost, creating prime opportunities for well-capitalized buyers to secure high-value assets at a discount.

• link

Texas to Surpass California in Population by 2045, Study Finds 

• Texas has had the highest net population growth in the last decade, adding 4 million new residents. Migration from California is the largest contributor, with residents 56% more likely to move for cheaper housing.

• The Texas workforce reached 15.1 million in 2023, adding more workers than any other state. Professional and business services employment surged by 42%, while natural resources and mining jobs declined.

• Housing affordability remains an issue despite lower prices than the national median. In 2024, 47.5% of for-sale inventory was listed under $350,000, but only 17% of homes were affordable for households earning less than $75,000 per year.

Austin saw the biggest drop in median asking rent among 44 major U.S. metros link

• Austin saw the biggest drop in median asking rent among 44 major U.S. metros, falling 16% year over year to $1,299 in January. This puts it 22.2%, or $400, below its August 2023 peak of $1,799.

• Texas and Florida markets are seeing rent declines due to high construction levels, increasing competition for tenants. Rents in Tampa and Jacksonville fell 8.2% and 6.4% respectively, while Salt Lake City and New York dropped 6.5% and 5%.

• Cincinnati led rent increases at 15%, followed by Providence at 13.4%, Louisville at 10.5%, Baltimore at 10.2%, and Washington, D.C., at 8.8%. Meanwhile, Redfin warns that slowing apartment construction and elevated homebuying costs could push rents back up.

Overall Distress by Property Type

Job growth is accelerating in these markets

Gen Z seeking inventive homeownership paths

U.S. industrial market trends

The Composition of Housing Starts is Changing

List of Proptech Startups That Just Got Funded

Charted: Which Jobs Are Using AI the Most?

Listed for only $795,000

Link to the listing

That's all folks. Let me know what you think of the email. Quite a lot went into it. If these emails aren't for you anymore, you can unsubscribe here.

Cheers,

Vidit

Instagram

P.S - Read past newsletters here