Cities that Have Not Recovered from COVID Job Losses

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“Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.”

― Bernard M. Baruch

U.S. Homeowner Equity Remains Elevated But Dips Downward Again in First Quarter link

• Home equity levels have been fluctuating, with the equity-rich portion of mortgaged homes decreasing for three consecutive quarters. By Q1 2024, only 45.8% of homes were considered equity-rich, down from 47.2% in the same quarter the previous year.

• The decline in homeowner equity coincides with falling home prices, which dropped by 4% over the winter. This situation suggests that as property values decline, homeowners find themselves with diminishing equity, despite paying down mortgage debts.

• Seriously underwater mortgages are on the rise, indicating increasing financial strain for some homeowners. This rate slightly increased from 2.6% to 2.7%, marking a worrying trend in homeowner financial health, particularly in states like Kentucky and Louisiana.

Commercial Mortgage Lending Slows in Q1, Shows Signs of Stabilizing link

• The CBRE Lending Momentum Index observed a decline of 11% quarter-over-quarter and 32.7% year-over-year in Q1 2024, settling at a score of 168. This reduction is attributed to diminished financing activity amid soaring interest rates and constrained credit access.

• Spreads between the 10-year Treasury yield and commercial loans have tightened, with a notable 22 basis points drop for 55%-to-65% loan-to-value fixed-rate commercial loans. Similarly, multifamily spreads have compressed by 17 basis points, reflecting subtle market adjustments.

• Alternative lending has surged, capturing 47.2% of the Q1 loan volume, predominantly through bridge lending. Meanwhile, the share of banks in non-agency lending plummeted to 23% in Q1 2024 from 41% the previous year, influenced by increased loan extensions and looming regulatory hurdles.

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Cities that Have Not Recovered from COVID Job Losses link

• The US has seen a 4% increase in total employment since February 2020, but some major markets are still lagging in recovery. Los Angeles remains about 60,000 jobs short of its pre-pandemic numbers, the largest deficit nationwide.

• San Francisco has the worst relative recovery rate, with employment 3.4% below pre-COVID levels, translating to nearly 45,000 fewer jobs as of March 2024. Unlike other areas, Sun Belt markets have shown better recovery, with Memphis nearly reaching its pre-pandemic employment levels.

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Says Prices Up 6.4% Year-Over-Year Link

Charted: National Rent Trends 

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The Growth of a $1,000, by Stock Market in Different Countries

That's all, folks.

Cheers,

Vidit

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