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The Fastest Growing Cities In America

And Their Change In Income + 6 more real estate insights

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Estimated read time: 3 minutes

Macro Trends

U.S. Consumers are Poised to Cut Back Spending. What Will It Mean for the Economy? link

  • Consumers contribute approximately 68% to the GDP, playing a pivotal role in the economy.

  • The Federal Reserve closely monitors consumer behavior, especially in relation to inflation and interest rates.

  • Rising wages and increased consumer spending have heightened the Fed's concerns, as these are seen as factors amplifying inflation.

Here are 3 trends to watch for in the key August inflation report, according to Goldman Sachs link

  • Goldman Sachs predicts August headline CPI to surge by 3.58% annually, a notable increase from July's 3.2%.

  • Transportation costs are on the rise with a projected 4.3% hike in August, largely influenced by a 6% jump in airfares due to surging jet fuel prices.

  • Shelter inflation is expected to remain stable, with the rent component of CPI anticipated to grow by 0.40% this month.

BLS: CPI increased 0.6% in August; Core CPI increased 0.3% link

  • The Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) rose by 0.6% in August, following a 0.2% increase in July. Over the past year, the index has surged by 3.7%.

  • The gasoline index was the primary driver of the monthly increase, contributing to over half of the rise. The energy index jumped by 5.6% in August, with all major energy components seeing an uptick.

  • Excluding food and energy, the index increased by 0.3% in August. Notable rises were observed in rent, owners' equivalent rent, and medical care, among others.

Real Estate Trends

U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook: 2023 Midyear Review link

  • The U.S. real estate market is experiencing a robust recovery, with demand outpacing supply in many sectors.

  • Office space demand is rebounding, but flexible work arrangements are influencing leasing decisions.

  • Industrial and logistics sectors remain strong, driven by e-commerce growth and supply chain adjustments.

1 in 10 Home Sellers Are Moving Because They’re Being Called Back to the Office: Survey link

  • Return-to-work policies are causing 10.1% of U.S. home sellers to relocate, with back-to-office mandates emerging as a new reason for relocation.

  • In Boise, ID, a couple may face a $100,000 loss on their home sale due to their Seattle-based employer's return-to-office mandate, resulting in a smaller home and higher mortgage rate in Seattle.

  • While the desire for more space remains the top reason for relocation (33.8%), other significant factors include proximity to family (22.6%) and a lower cost of living (21.6%).

Landlords Are Charging Near-Record Rents—But Offering Concessions link

  • The median asking rent in August reached $2,052, just a mere $2 below the record high from the previous year. Despite these high rates, landlords are opting for one-time concessions to lure renters as vacancies increase.

  • A shift in the rental market is evident: a year ago, rental concessions were rare. Now, landlords frequently offer one to three months free to attract new tenants without reducing their listed rents. This trend is especially prevalent for high-end properties facing competition due to an influx of new luxury units.

  • While rents remain close to their peak, the massive year-over-year increases observed in the past have subsided. For instance, in August 2022, the median asking rent surged by 12.3% year over year. This rapid growth has cooled, attributed to factors like economic uncertainty, increased rental supply, and affordability challenges.

Only 2% of Homeowners are Underwater link

  • In Q2, 2023, only 2% of U.S. homeowners with mortgages were underwater, a significant drop from the 26% peak in 2009.

  • As home prices increased, 6.3% fewer homeowners (approximately 75k borrowers) were underwater in Q2 compared to the previous quarter.

  • Northeastern states saw the largest annual equity gains, while Western states continued to experience losses.

Opportunities

What Experts Project for Home Prices Over the Next 5 Years link

  • Experts from Pulsenomics' Home Price Expectation Survey project consistent home price appreciation every year through 2027.

  • Despite varying local market conditions, the overall trend suggests a return to more standard home price appreciation rates.

  • A hypothetical scenario: purchasing a $400,000 home at the start of the year could lead to an accumulation of over $71,000 in household wealth within five years, given the expert projections.

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