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Consumer confidence falls sharply link

• The Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 92.9 in March, the lowest since February 2021. Expectations for income, business, and job conditions over the next six months sank to 65.2, a 12-year low.

• High inflation and looming tariffs are pushing consumers to cut back, with signs like smaller pack-size purchases and weaker retail sales showing up already. Major retailers are feeling the pinch as household spending slows.

• Only 37.4% of people now expect stock prices to rise over the next year, down from 46.7% in February. Confidence in handling a $2,000 emergency expense hit a record low in February.

Homes with nature-inspired design features sell for as much as 3.5% more link

• Homes with soapstone countertops, white oak floors, and Venetian plaster walls sell for 3.0% to 3.5% more than expected, adding around $12,500 to a typical U.S. sale price. Organic modern finishes like natural stone and wood are driving higher resale value.

• Functional outdoor features also boost home prices, with outdoor showers adding 2.8%, and outdoor kitchens or bluestone patios increasing value by 2.2%. Remodeled homes lead all keywords with a 3.7% sale premium.

• Wet rooms are gaining popularity, helping homes sell for 3.3% more compared to just 0.6% for general spa-style bathrooms. Soapstone now outperforms quartz in value contribution, reflecting a shift in buyer preferences.

Rental housing sees boost as millennials form families and delay homeownership link

• Millennials are staying in rentals longer due to rising home prices and delayed family formation, with the median age of first-time buyers now at 38. Apartment renewal rates are at 55%, reflecting fewer transitions into homeownership.

• The average monthly mortgage payment for a median-priced home is $3,100, compared to $1,830 for rent, widening the affordability gap. Home prices are up nearly 50% since 2020, making renting a more feasible option for many.

• Developers have improved rental quality with better amenities, floor plans, and services, making rentals more appealing. This shift is reducing the urgency for younger adults to buy homes despite long-term interest in ownership.

High supply markets pulling back on permitting link

• Austin and Phoenix each saw a 40% drop in multifamily permitting compared to last year, while Los Angeles and Washington, DC declined 34% and 23%. These four markets alone accounted for 23,100 fewer permitted units.

• In contrast, New York increased annual multifamily permitting by 4,332 units to lead the nation with 31,534 units, despite a monthly drop. Other gainers included Fort Worth, Chicago, Omaha, Milwaukee, Baltimore and Anaheim.

• Markets with sharp permitting declines included Miami (-2,678 units), San Antonio (-2,643), Salt Lake City (-2,518), San Jose (-2,316) and Indianapolis (-2,122). Eleven other metros saw declines of over 1,000 units each.

US home price insights – March 2025 link

• National home prices grew 3.3% year-over-year from January 2024 to January 2025, barely outpacing inflation. Monthly growth is flat, and homebuying demand remains weak across most of the country.

• The Northeast is outperforming with prices well above the national average, while Hawaii saw a 4.4% price drop and Mountain West markets remain far below their peaks. Western New York is gaining favor as Florida and Arizona are increasingly seen as high-risk for declines.

• The median sales price for single-family homes in the U.S. is now $375,000, expected to hit a new peak in March. Lower mortgage rates could boost demand this spring, but buyer caution remains due to economic uncertainty.

Rocket Companies to acquire Mr. Cooper in bombshell $9.4B deal link

• Rocket will control a $2.1 trillion servicing book covering nearly 10 million mortgages, meaning it will handle one out of every six mortgages in the U.S. The acquisition includes Mr. Cooper’s nearly 7 million clients.

• Rocket expects $100 million in extra pre-tax revenue from bundling services and better recapture rates, plus $400 million in cost savings. Mr. Cooper originated $23 billion in loans last year.

• A $5 billion bridge loan from JPMorgan is in place as a backstop, though Rocket says it doesn't plan to use it. The deal is set to close in Q4 2025, with Mr. Cooper’s CEO becoming president and CEO of Rocket Mortgage.

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CRE investment and macro trends

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Vidit

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