Impact Of Kamala Harris Presidency On Housing

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The Economy Is Doing Just Fine link

• Economic indicators such as retail sales, jobless claims, and air travel suggest a robust economy, with no signs of a recession. The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now estimate for Q3 is 2.4%, while the Dallas Fed's indicator is at 2.3%.

• High consumer activity is evident in strong retail sales, restaurant bookings, and Broadway attendance. Credit card spending remains solid, and bankruptcy filings are decreasing.

• State-level GDP data for New York, California, and Texas indicates ongoing economic strength. This reinforces the broader national trends of stability and growth.

Weekly Housing Trends —Data for Week Ending Aug. 17, 2024 link

• The median listing price dropped 1.2% year over year, marking the 12th consecutive week of price stabilization or decline. This indicates a more buyer-friendly market, with prices aligning better with budgets.

• Active inventory is up 34.8% compared to the same time last year, continuing a trend of increased listings for 41 consecutive weeks. However, overall inventory remains below pre-pandemic levels, showing a slow recovery.

• Homes are staying on the market 7 days longer than in 2023, reflecting a slower pace in sales despite lower prices and mortgage rates. This could lead to further price reductions as sellers aim to close deals.

Student Housing Preleasing, Rent Growth Decelerated in July, Reports Yardi Matrix link

• Preleasing at Yardi 200 schools reached 89.2% in July, slightly lower than last year's performance. The sector remains 5% below Fall 2023 occupancy levels.

• Rent growth averaged 4.7% year-over-year, with advertised asking rent per bed at $897. However, rents have been flat for the last five months, indicating a slowdown.

• Despite the general deceleration, 41 universities surpassed Fall 2023 occupancy levels, and 36 universities saw rent growth over 10%, often linked to strong enrollment growth.

Here’s What a Kamala Harris Presidency Could Mean For the Housing Market link

• Harris’s plan to build 3 million new homes aims to tackle the affordability crisis but hinges on overcoming significant obstacles like local government cooperation and regulatory red tape.

• A proposed $25,000 down payment assistance for first-time homebuyers could boost demand but risks inflating prices unless supply increases simultaneously.

• The plan also encourages transit-oriented development and reducing taxes on builders, which could lead to more dense housing and lower costs, especially in high-demand areas.

Zombie Foreclosure Rate Continues to Decline in Third Quarter of 2024, Marking Lowest Level Since 2021 link

• The number of zombie foreclosures decreased by 20.2% year-over-year, with just 7,007 vacant homes in foreclosure across the U.S., the lowest level since early 2021.

• Despite a slight quarterly increase in zombie foreclosures (0.9%), these properties represent a tiny fraction of the U.S. housing market, with only 1 in 14,776 homes currently sitting vacant in foreclosure.

• States like Connecticut, Oklahoma, and Iowa saw the most significant drops in zombie properties, while Florida, Texas, and New Jersey experienced increases, particularly in Florida, where zombie properties rose by 64%.

Hyatt Expands Luxury Portfolio with Acquisition of Standard Hotels link

• Hyatt has acquired the Standard Hotels, expanding its portfolio of luxury and lifestyle brands. The acquisition includes five properties in key cities such as New York, Los Angeles, and Miami.

• This move reflects Hyatt’s strategy to enhance its presence in the lifestyle segment, a growing area in the hospitality industry. The Standard Hotels are known for their unique design and cultural appeal, which align with Hyatt's focus on experiential travel.

• The acquisition is part of Hyatt's broader growth plan to attract younger, more affluent travelers. This demographic values the boutique-style, high-energy atmosphere that Standard Hotels are famous for.

There Is No Distress Per The Numbers link

• Distress sales have averaged $2.1 billion per quarter since 2023, slightly below the pre-pandemic quarterly average of $2.2 billion from 2017-2019. Despite headlines suggesting widespread distress, actual sales data indicates it’s not as prevalent.

• Office and hospitality sectors are leading in distress activity, with hospitality at 7.2% and office at 3.8%. Industrial properties show minimal distress with only $1.7 billion outstanding.

• Manhattan tops the list for current distress at $17.2 billion, followed by San Francisco and Chicago at $7.2 billion each. The type of distress varies by market; San Francisco’s is driven by multifamily, while Chicago's is led by office sector issues.

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