More Listings at Major Climate Risk Now

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Economic watch: quarter-point Fed rate cut likely following strong September jobs report link

• The U.S. added 254,000 jobs in September, surpassing expectations of 150,000. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.1%, with job gains concentrated in food services, health care, and government sectors.

• Office-using jobs increased by 22,000, led by professional and business services with a 17,000-job gain. Despite some inconsistencies, ongoing economic growth and stability in work patterns should sustain leasing activity.

• Warehousing lost 11,000 jobs in September, with industrial demand expected to stay resilient due to strong consumer spending. Meanwhile, the construction sector saw a boost, adding 25,000 jobs driven by federal programs supporting infrastructure and manufacturing.

More New Listings at Major Climate Risk Now Than Five Years Ago link

• Nationwide, over half of August's new listings (55.5%) face major extreme heat risk, while a third are at significant risk from extreme wind exposure. Wildfire risk affects 16.7%, while 13% of listings face poor air quality and 12.8% are at high flood risk.

• Riverside leads with over 70% of new listings at major wildfire risk, followed by Sacramento (47%) and several other cities like Jacksonville, Phoenix, and Denver. New Orleans has the highest flood risk, with 76.8% of its new listings in danger.

• Midwest cities such as Cleveland, Columbus, and Milwaukee have the lowest climate risks. In these markets, fewer than 10% of new listings in August were exposed to any major climate risks.

Multifamily momentum trends up on lower debt costs, higher cap rates link

• The average multifamily cap rate rose to 5.8% between July 2023 and June 2024, up 110 basis points from 2022's low. This is the highest cap rate since 2014, signaling a favorable environment for buyers.

• National vacancy rates held steady at 5.8% for the first half of 2024, though vacancy remains 40 basis points above long-term averages. Supply pressures are more pronounced outside the Sun Belt but have been mild in cities like Chicago and Cleveland.

• Rent growth for lease renewals increased by 4% in 2024, while new leases saw a decline of 0.8%. The apartment renewal rate climbed to 54.9% as homeownership became less accessible, with only 26% of U.S. households able to qualify for a median-priced home loan.

Mortgage rates tick down to 6.08%—the lowest level in two years:  link

• The 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped to 6.08%, its lowest point in two years, slightly down from 6.09%. This decline is spurring more homeowners to refinance, while potential buyers wait for further rate drops.

• Home prices are softening as rates fall, with the national median list price in August at $429,990, down 1% year over year. Sellers are responding by cutting prices, with price reductions on listings up nearly 30% compared to last year.

• Housing inventory surged, with a 33.2% increase in homes for sale compared to last year. Homes are staying on the market longer, with an average of 53 days, though the market may see renewed buyer activity as rates improve.

Zumper National Rent Report

• The median rent for one-bedroom apartments across the U.S. dropped by 0.1% to $1,533, and two-bedroom rents decreased by 0.2% to $1,912 this month. These slight declines align with the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate cut in four years, indicating potential for further rent easing.

• New York City maintained its peak one-bedroom rent at $4,500, while San Francisco saw rents rise to $3,170 for one-bedrooms and $4,270 for two-bedrooms. Meanwhile, New Haven, CT, posted the highest annual rent growth, jumping 38% for one-bedrooms.

• Atlanta's rental market saw a continued decline with one-bedroom rents dropping 4.1% annually, driven by a surge in supply. Over 67,000 new rental units have pushed vacancy rates up, reflecting a cooling trend in the city’s rental prices.

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Zillow teams with First Street to provide homebuyers with climate risk data link

• Zillow now offers homebuyers detailed climate risk data, including flood, fire, wind, heat, and air quality risks. This tool aims to inform buyers about potential environmental hazards and future insurance requirements.

• Over 80% of buyers consider climate risks when purchasing a home, making this data increasingly crucial for decision-making. Midwest homes have the least exposure, while 55.5% of new listings nationwide face heat risks.

• The new data will be available on Zillow’s website and iOS app by year-end, with Android access coming early next year.

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