Redfin’s 2025 predictions

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Q3 2024 housing affordability update: Moody’s: link

• Median household income rose 3.6% year-over-year, reducing the national rent-to-income (RTI) ratio to 26.7%. This improvement offers slight relief to rent-burdened households, particularly in southern metros experiencing population inflow.

• States like Florida, Texas, and North Carolina saw high migration gains due to job opportunities and affordability, while New York and California faced significant net outflows. Florida alone attracted 696,933 movers, including 71,138 from New York.

• Student housing rents have grown faster than multi-family rents, rising 5.0% in 2023 and 4.3% in 2024. At Penn State, student housing rents surged 23.9% over five years, outpacing multi-family rent growth of 3.5% in the same area.

Redfin’s 2025 predictions: link

• Median home prices are projected to increase by 4% in 2025 due to limited inventory failing to meet demand. Rising home costs will push more potential buyers towards renting as a more affordable option.

• Mortgage rates are expected to stay near 7%, driven by potential inflationary pressures from proposed tax cuts and tariffs. If economic conditions soften, rates could drop to around 6%, which might stimulate homebuying.

• Rental affordability will improve as median rents remain flat and wages rise. Builders completing pandemic-era projects will add to rental supply, forcing landlords to offer concessions to retain tenants.

FHFA says home prices up 4.3% year-over-year

• Home prices rose 4.3% nationally from Q3 2023 to Q3 2024, according to the FHFA House Price Index. This data reflects trends across all 50 states and over 400 U.S. cities.

• Price growth slowed significantly in Q3, following a decline that began in late 2023, attributed to high mortgage rates and limited housing supply. The imbalance between strong demand and constrained inventory kept prices elevated.

• The FHFA index, a unique resource tracing back to the 1970s, highlights historical changes in single-family home values. It remains one of the most comprehensive tools for understanding U.S. housing market trends.

2024 top multifamily developers

• The national pipeline shows robust activity with nearly 1.2 million units under construction and 4.4 million in planning stages. However, supply is expected to drop to 370,000 units in 2026 and 330,000 in 2027.

• Greystar leads the rankings, delivering over 27,000 units between 2021-2023 and maintaining over 38,000 units under construction. Their modular construction initiative is expanding with 1,510 units currently underway.

• Related Cos. and Trammell Crow Co.'s High Street Residential follow in second and third place. Notable projects include Sugar Pine Village in South Lake Tahoe and The Frankie in Portland, focusing on community art integration.

• click on the link to see the rest of the list.

Lower-Income Households Are More Vulnerable to Higher Rates for Longer link

• Lower-income households allocate a smaller share of their total debt to mortgages compared to higher-income households. However, they are more impacted by higher interest rates due to reliance on non-fixed-rate debts like credit cards and personal loans.

• Approximately 95% of U.S. mortgages are on 30-year fixed terms, providing stability for most homeowners. Yet, lower-income families face financial stress as rate hikes affect variable-rate products, increasing their cost of living.

• Federal Reserve data shows that the financial vulnerability of these groups has risen since 2024 Q2. Persistent high rates exacerbate disparities, making economic recovery slower for low-income earners.

Discount and dollar stores are consumer havens this holiday season link

• Discount and dollar stores like Dollar Tree and Dollar General are seeing significant foot traffic increases during the holiday season. In October 2024, visits rose by 7.6% and 7.8% respectively compared to September, reflecting consumers’ preference for budget-friendly shopping options.

• Dollar Tree experiences a notable surge in visits closer to Christmas, with weekly growth hitting 74.6% in the last full week before the holiday. In contrast, Dollar General’s less dramatic growth may stem from its pivot to fresh food offerings, resembling grocery shopping patterns.

• Retailers are benefiting from holiday spending spikes, but consumer behaviors are heavily influenced by inflationary pressures and bargain-hunting trends. Sales of seasonal items like gift wrap and stocking stuffers are driving visits to discount stores.

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Gorgeous, shabby Victorian for $150k

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Vidit

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