States With the Fastest Growing Populations

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Top 10 markets for industrial deliveries link

• Industrial completions in the U.S. dropped to 358 million square feet in 2024, the lowest in three years but still higher than any pre-2020 level. This trend is expected to continue in 2025, with only 236 million square feet projected to start construction.

• Phoenix led all metros with 32.6 million square feet delivered, making up more than 9% of total U.S. industrial completions. Dallas followed with 29.1 million square feet, while the Inland Empire ranked third with 20.8 million square feet.

• Savannah-Hilton Head had the largest under-construction pipeline at 23.9 million square feet, signaling future growth despite a sharp decline in completions. New Jersey saw a slowdown in new projects due to rising vacancy rates and local opposition to development.

Long-Term Renters More Likely to Live in Single-Family Units link

• Large multifamily properties have the highest renter turnover, with 30.5% of tenants on their first lease. Only 28% stay for more than five years, and units are smaller and more expensive per square foot.

• Small multifamily buildings see longer tenancy, with nearly 60% staying more than two years and 30% staying beyond five years. These properties are typically more affordable per square foot and offer larger units than high-rise apartments.

• Single-family rentals have the most stable tenants, with 68% reaching their third lease and 40% staying over five years. Families with children drive this trend, making SFRs the most anchored rental type.

Rentals face prolonged lease-up periods amid record supply link

• Properties in lease-up are now taking about 16 months to reach 85% occupancy, compared to 12 months in 2019. This delay is due to a record 588,900 units being delivered last year.

• Tenant retention is rising as operators focus on keeping residents amid high competition. The 12-month average renewal rate at the end of 2024 was 54.5%, up from 53% in 2023.

• Concessions are nearing pandemic-era levels, with 8.5% of conventional units offering them in December 2024. The most common concession is about one month of free rent.

CRE lending activity sees strong recovery link

• CBRE's lending activity index surged 21% from Q3 2024 and 37% year-over-year, exceeding the five-year pre-pandemic average. This growth is driven by strong fundamentals, maturing debt, and abundant capital across most sectors.

• Bank participation in non-agency loan closings jumped to 43% in Q4, up from 18% in Q3, as lenders cleaned up balance sheets and regulatory conditions improved. Multifamily loan spreads tightened to 156 basis points, the narrowest since early 2022.

• The Federal Reserve’s rate cuts have created a positive yield curve, making longer-term loans more attractive. Many lenders who had been on the sidelines for 18 to 24 months are re-entering the market as investors move past the “extend and pretend” phase.

The state of US homeownership: Younger buyers hold the key link

• The US homeownership rate stands at 65.7%, unchanged from Q4 2023, showing stability despite rising home prices and mortgage rates. If affordability had been better, the rate could have been slightly higher.

• Millennials remain the largest group of homebuyers, driven by life events like marriage and dual-income households. However, high housing costs and mortgage rates near 8% have slowed their market entry.

• Baby boomers are staying in their homes longer, pushing housing tenure from 5-7 years in the early 2000s to 11-13 years now. This limits available inventory and slows the transition from renting to homeownership.

Mapped: U.S. States With the Fastest Growing Populations (2003-2023)

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Vidit

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