Top 10 Counties with Highest Home Flipping Rates in Q1 2024

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2024 Mid-Year Outlook Per The PE Giant Apollo Link

• Interest rates will remain higher for longer due to strong near-term growth, deglobalization, the energy transition, increased defense spending, rising Treasury issuance, and US fiscal deficits.

• Office remains particularly weak for a variety of reasons, including work from home and higher interest rates, but other real asset sectors are showing resiliency. Secular growth trends continue to persist for industrial, multifamily, as well as specialty areas such as data centers, cold storage, self-storage, and student housing.

• The opportunity remains more compelling towards real estate debt than equity on a risk-adjusted basis in the current cycle. Real estate credit can offer a more attractive proposition due to high base interest rates, widening spreads, more protective loan structures, as well as expectations of higher-for-longer rates.

Inventory Growth Is Slowing. Are Sellers Backing Off? link

• Inventory increased by 14,000 homes this week but was below the model's prediction of 16,000. This suggests that while inventory is growing, the pace is slower than earlier in the year.

• New listings have plateaued, with 72,000 new single-family listings, up 13% from last year but stable week-over-week. This indicates a possible halt in expanding seller activity.

• Demand remains weak, with only 67,000 new contracts started this week, a decline from last year. High mortgage rates are discouraging buyers, maintaining a holding pattern in the market.

Prime vs. Non-Prime Office Market Performance link

• Prime office buildings have a much lower vacancy rate than non-prime buildings, with a 14.8% vacancy for prime spaces versus 19.3% for non-prime in Q1 2024. This gap is due to higher demand for quality spaces that offer better amenities and work environments.

• From Q1 2020 to Q1 2024, prime buildings absorbed 49 million sq. ft. positively, while non-prime buildings saw a negative net absorption of 170 million sq. ft. This trend indicates a strong preference for prime spaces amid the shift to hybrid work models.

• Average asking rent for prime offices is 84% higher than non-prime, reflecting their desirability. With limited new prime construction expected, rents for prime spaces are projected to continue rising, maintaining a significant premium over non-prime spaces.

Large Block Leases Take Longer Share of NYC Office Market link

• In the first half of 2023, leases of 100,000 square feet or more represented 15.4% of NYC office leasing activity by square footage. Smaller leases of 10,000 square feet or less made up 39.2% of the activity.

• By 2024, large leases increased their share to 20%, while small leases dropped to 35.4%. This shift indicates a growing preference for larger office spaces in NYC.

Car and Truck Shipping Volume Soars in Savannah link

• The Port of Brunswick near Savannah saw a 44% year-over-year increase in car and truck imports in April, moving over 80,000 vehicles and heavy machinery units. This surge is attributed to the collapse of a bridge at the Port of Baltimore in March.

• Brunswick has now become the second busiest U.S. port for car and truck cargo, surpassing Baltimore, which held this position before the accident. The Port of Baltimore has been largely non-operational since March 26.

• The increase in shipping volume highlights the impact of infrastructure issues on logistics and port activities. The shift in cargo to Brunswick demonstrates the port's capacity to handle increased demand.

2024 Housing Market Forecast (% appreciation) Per Zillow, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Goldman Sachs et al.

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Rent Growth is Exceptional Among These Small Markets 

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Old Church Turned Into a House

Link to the listing

That's all, folks.

Cheers,

Vidit

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