The Top 10 States Residents Want to Move In and Out of per Google Searches.

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Recession fears melt away as bond yield spreads fall to new 2023 lows link

• Boosting Confidence: Recession fears are fading as bond yield spreads hit new lows in 2023, reflecting a surge in investor confidence in corporate earnings.

• Earnings Impact: If Q2 earnings are robust, it would validate the ongoing rally in US equities and set the stage for further growth.

• Market Indicators: The declining Google search volumes for "Dow Jones" suggest that fewer Americans are focused on the stock rally, which could be a positive sign for further upside in stocks and the broader economy.

The Top 10 States Residents Want to Move Into and Out of per Google Searches link

• Lone Star Attraction: Texas leads the way in net migration with 56.9% of moves being inbound, followed closely by Florida at 56.1% and North Carolina at 57.3%.

• Californian Exodus: California has experienced a significant demographic shift with a striking outflow rate of 60.2%, marking a historic first in the state's migration patterns.

• East Coast Emigration: New York's outflow of residents is notable with a substantial 63.1% choosing to relocate, showcasing changing population dynamics on the East Coast.

10 Most Expensive Housing Markets in the US Nearly Unchanged in 3 Years link

• Steady State: Despite a 40% increase in real estate prices over the past three years, the most expensive U.S. housing markets have remained largely unchanged since early 2020. Eight out of the top ten Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) are still the same, with most being in California.

• Data Snapshot: San Francisco, CA continues to lead the pack with a median price increase from $1,250,000 in January 2020 to $1,400,000 in March 2023. Other California cities like San Jose and Anaheim also saw significant price increases.

• Market Movement: While the most and least expensive markets remained stable, there was notable movement in the middle of the spectrum. Florida markets like Cape Coral-Fort Myers and Tampa saw significant appreciation, moving up in the rankings. Conversely, cities like Minneapolis, Baltimore, and New Orleans saw their rankings drop.

Evictions are surging. Especially in Las Vegas. link

• Surge in Evictions: Evictions in US cities like Las Vegas, Minneapolis, and Houston have increased by up to 71% compared to pre-pandemic levels.

• Rising Vacancies: The surge in evictions has led to an increase in vacant rentals, pushing down rents. For instance, the vacancy rate in Las Vegas has risen from 2.5% in 2021 to 8.7% now.

• Rent Declines: June 2023 marked the first month of YoY rent declines (-0.1%) since the beginning of the pandemic, indicating a potential trend of falling rents in the latter half of 2023.

Homes Are Selling for Near-Record Highs as Supply Falls to New Low, Demand Picks Up link

• Surge in Prices: The median sale price was just 1.5% below its all-time high in June, with the average home selling for above its list price for the first time in roughly a year.

• Dwindling Supply: The number of homes for sale fell 15% to an all-time low in June, the biggest decline in two years, as elevated rates kept sellers on the sidelines.

• Rising Demand: Demand is inching up as house hunters get used to high mortgage rates; pending sales posted their biggest monthly increase since 2021.

Banks Step up U.S Property Loan Tweaks to Limit Defaults link

• Proactive Measures: Banks are actively reworking the terms of U.S. commercial real estate loans to prevent defaults. This includes offering loan extensions, modifications, and subsidized loans to investors for purchasing defaulted loans.

• Office Sector Stress: The office sector is facing significant challenges with an unpaid principal balance of $12.74 billion in office loans as of June, up from $5.51 billion a year ago. Moreover, around $20 billion of office CMBS loans are maturing in 2023.

• Banks' Strategy Impact: The banks' strategy is slowing defaults. About $2.1 billion of office loans pooled in CMBS matured in May, with 36.5% of them being modified or extended. The overall default rate for the office sector stands at 4%, well below the 10% during the financial crisis.

2023 Heloc Boom: Americans Tap into Home Equity link

• Equity Explosion: The pandemic real estate rally has led to a surge in home equity lines of credit (Helocs) as homeowners borrow against their skyrocketing property values. In 2022, Heloc originations rose 34% from the previous year, marking the highest total since 2008.

• Trillion-Dollar Treasure Trove: Americans collectively had $28.7 trillion worth of home equity at the end of Q1, with $9.3 trillion available to lend or borrow against while maintaining a 20% equity cushion. This represents a 56% increase over a three-year period.