Trade war has much bigger negative impact on the US

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Trade war has much bigger negative impact on the US link

• The IMF’s revised forecast shows the U.S. economy will take a significantly bigger hit from the trade war than China or other countries. This signals a reversal of the expected leverage the U.S. had when the tariffs began.

• The forecast shift between January and now suggests heightened concerns about the resilience of U.S. growth under prolonged trade tensions. The disparity in impact raises questions about the effectiveness of tariff-based strategies.

• While the exact figures weren’t disclosed, the visual data from the IMF underscores a sharper downturn for the U.S. compared to global peers. This could weigh heavily on U.S. economic policy decisions ahead of 2025's second half.

Aldi poised for growth as tariffs squeeze family budgets link

• Aldi's prices are often 10–15% lower than Walmart, making it one of the most budget-friendly grocery options. Its focus on private-label products helps keep costs down and prices competitive.

• Rising tariffs are putting pressure on household budgets, increasing demand for discount retailers like Aldi. This shift is especially strong among price-sensitive consumers nationwide.

• Aldi’s growth strategy benefits from current economic stressors, including inflation and import-related costs. The brand is positioning itself as a go-to for value shopping amid broader retail strain.

Logistics sector in flux amid economic uncertainty link

• Warehouse space utilization rose to 85.1% in April, up from 84.6% in the prior two months. This reflects stronger recovery and a shift in inventory strategies despite economic headwinds.

• Market rents stayed steady in the Midwest, Sunbelt, and East Coast but remained weak in Southern California. Regional variation shows uneven market resilience, with speculative construction slowing due to high development costs.

• The under-construction pipeline is now 25% below 2019 levels, driven by rising costs and policy uncertainty. Prologis expects limited new supply to push rents higher once conditions stabilize.

New-construction insights:  link

• In 26 of the 100 largest U.S. metros, builders are delivering smaller, cheaper homes, with the median list price for new homes down 0.3% to $448,393. Cities like Austin (-9.9%), Little Rock (-12.9%), and Colorado Springs (-13.8% in square footage) show the steepest cuts in either price or size.

• New-home buyers are securing lower mortgage rates—averaging 6.1% compared to 6.6% for existing homes—saving around $168 monthly on a typical 30-year loan. This discount is due to builder incentives like rate buydowns, often offered through in-house lenders.

• Southern metros dominate new construction, but Midwest and Northeast regions still face inventory gaps. Regions like the South have a higher share of new listings and lower price premiums, while the Northeast remains expensive due to limited land and zoning barriers.

Southern Discomfort: Weather and Economic Headwinds Drive Home Insurance Premiums Through the Roof link

• Homeowners insurance premiums in the U.S. rose 21% from 2021 to 2023, adding about $300 annually per policy. This spike outpaced both inflation and income growth, straining affordability for many households.

• Southern cities were hit hardest, with New Orleans premiums jumping 51%—over $1,200 more—raising average costs to more than $3,500 per year. Other steep hikes included Jacksonville (38%), Tampa (33%), and Orlando (31%).

• Denver was the only non-Southern metro with similar increases, climbing 25.3% due to wildfire and hail risks. In total, eight of the ten fastest-rising premium cities were in the South, where the 2023 average hit $2,120.

Washington, D.C. housing inventory jumps record 25% amid federal layoffs link

• Washington, D.C. saw a 25.1% year-over-year jump in active home listings, the largest increase on record since 2015. This surge is driven largely by mass federal layoffs affecting over 121,000 government workers.

• Median home prices in D.C. rose 4.1% to $600,964, outpacing the national increase of 1.9%. Despite economic instability, homes in D.C. are selling faster and more frequently above asking price compared to national trends.

• Suburbs like Alexandria, VA (40.9%), Montgomery County, MD (38.5%), and Loudoun County, VA (36.8%) are leading the surge in inventory. In contrast, D.C. proper saw a smaller rise at 14.9%, showing the layoffs’ stronger impact outside the city core.

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